Technical analysis and outlook for most currencies - commodities and Shares for 2019
2019-01-01 05:20 pm | No Views : 229
IntroductionThe year ended 2018 with many different and varied events affecting the various markets. The currency and commodities market witnessed a series of events that influenced the movement of the main couples. The summit is headed by the Brexit agreement and how the British exit from the European Union. Of recent violent declines or bond markets and the associated increase in interest rates in various countries, both developed and headed by the United States of America, which reached 2.5% at the end of 2018 or emerging, which reached in some countries more than 40%, and Beginning of 2018 Us Bamdad reader our outlook for the year 2018 for some couples and goods which will shed the light again and see what has already been achieved by Toukatna and what we fail in which to express it about the extent of our credibility and quality and makes sure the reader to browse the site Trading Beck is not a waste of time, but it has a value.
The EUR/USD 2019 outlook - the single currency Euro zone against the US dollarTime frame used - weekly (for medium term investor)
The EUR/USD is moving in a medium-term downtrend.
HistoryBefore we analyze the current situation of the EUR/USD, we will highlight what we expected for the EUR/USD during 2018, where the EUR/USD was trading around 1.21 and we expected the EUR/USD to target 1.2637 and look at the highest price the EUR/USD reached In 2018 we will find that the EUR/USD targeted the 1.2551 level to approach the previously mentioned target.
AnalysisBy the beginning of 2018, purchasing power managed to control the movement of the EUR/USD so that the bulls could breach the 1.21 level to reach the EUR/USD level at 1.2555, where resistance and strong selling pressure around this level pushed the pair back down below the 1.1545 support level which turned into Resistance level, where prices fell to reach the EUR/USD to the level of 1.1209 to bounce back to the top again trying to test the resistance level 1.1545, and if we look at the graph shown we will find the convergence of the bottom of the level of 1.13 with the bottom of 1.1209, indicating a decline in acceleration between the seller and buyer .
If we look at the technical indicators that are attached to the chart, we find that the Bulinger Index is still moving between the bottom of the Bulinger Index and the 20 Moving Average line of the Bulinger Index. This indicates the continuation of the bearish trend for the EUR/USD. And bears are still in control of the price movement, and in view of the Relative Strength Index we note that there is a positive deviation between the index and prices
ExpectationFrom the above we expect the EUR/USD to test 1.1550 - 1.1823 in a corrective correction and then to fall back again as the EUR/USD has a major bearish target around 1.0535 and our view remains as long as the EUR/USD is trading below 1.1823, With the expectation that the dollar index will drop to 94.24, and this scenario would fail if the EUR/USD breached the 1.1823 high, where the breach of the 1.1823 level above the EUR/USD target levels of 1.21- 1.2555.
RecommendationFor the EUR/USD, we recommend that the medium term investor close any open positions around the current levels around 1.1300-1.1400 and wait for another sell signal near 1.1823
For those outside the market we recommend the medium term investor to open the positions around the level of 1.1823 with the activation of stop loss in the case of the closure of the highest level 1.1823
Resistance: 1.1550 - 1.1823 - 1.2100
Support: 1.1209 - 1.0921 - 1.0535
GBP/USD Forecast and Outlook for 2019Time frame used - weekly (for medium term investor)
GBP/USD is moving in a medium-term downtrend.
HistoryThe GBP/USD has seen a rally from the beginning of 2017 to the end of 2017 to reach the 1.4351 level at the end of 2017 to see a downward trend in 2018 after breaching the 1.3711 level.
AnalysisThe bulls were able to control the movement of the GBP/USD as the bears managed to push the pair lower and the GBP/USD is down to the 1.2473 level, but we see the last two pips of the GBP/USD from each other indicating a low acceleration between the seller and the buyer , As well as the GBP/USD reaching 61% Fibonacci retracement levels which are important levels of correction.
Looking at the technical indicators that are attached to the chart, the ADX is showing that the GBP/USD has moved in a more recent direction, as well as the improvement of the DI + line above, as well as a positive divergence between the prices and RSI, From the Bulinger we find that the GBP/USD is still moving between the lower border of the Bulinger Index and the Bollinger 20 moving average line.
ExpectationWe expect the GBP/USD to rebound in a corrective move to test the 1.3020 - 1.3350 levels, and our view remains intact as long as the GBP/USD is trading at the high of 1.2473, and this scenario fails if it breaks the 1.2473 lower level where a break below 1.2473 will see the GBP/USD further down to 1.2100 levels. This forecast coincides with our expectation that the Dollar index will drop to 94.24.
RecommendationClose any short positions currently open and wait for another sell signal near 1.3020 - 1.3350.
Buy around 1.2600 to target 1.3020 - 1.3350 with the activation of stop the level of losses in the case of closure below the level of 1.2473.
Resistance: 1.3020 - 1.3350 - 1.3711
Support: 1.2690 - 1.2473 - 1.2116
USD/JPY Forecast and Outlook for 2019Time frame used - weekly (for medium term investor)
The USD/JPY is moving in a medium-term trend.
HistoryThe USD/JPY has seen a sideways movement since the beginning of 2017 so far.
AnalysisLooking at the chart, the USD/JPY has seen a bearish sideways move since the beginning of 2017 as the USD/JPY moved within a bearish channel until last August managed to breach the descending channel to reach the resistance level of 114.27, where it faced heavy selling pressure To the downside again to touch the top of the descending channel around the 109.50 level, and in view of the technical indicators that are attached to the chart, we notice that the ADX directional movement indicator indicates an increase in the strength of the -DI indicator than previously. Selling pressure on the USD/JPY has increased In the coming period, in addition to the continued decline in the RSI below.
ExpectationWe expect the USD/JPY to see further declines in the coming period to reach 10.799 - 104.32 and our view remains as long as the USD/JPY is trading below 1.1427, and this scenario fails to close at 1.19.87. USD/JPY index of correction will push it down to test the 94.24 level.
RecommendationClosing any positions near 112.29 levels and opening selling positions near resistance levels.
Resistance: 1.1427 - 1.1987 - 1.2384
Support: 107.99 - 104.32 - 100.75
USD/TRY Forecast and Outlook for 2019USD/TRY opened in 2018 at 3.3710 and continued to rise until reaching the 7.1093 areas, the highest level since the beginning of the second millennium.
Due to the bullishness of bulls, the pair fell towards the 5.1319 area and then rebounded to close last year at 5.2883 zones.
USD/TRY is trading in a major and minor upside direction over the weekly interval. The trend is currently weak due to a break in the base of the bullish trend resulting from breaking the previous low and forming a lower peak than the other.
Currently, the pair has corrected around 0.50 Fibonacci for the wave which started from the first week of September 2017 and continued until August 2018.
As long as the pair is trading below 5.4387, we do not recommend opening any long or medium term positions.
It is recommended to open medium term positions in the case of breaking 5.1186 areas to take advantage of the target of the husband at the areas of 3.7987: 3.7190.
It is expected that if the above mentioned areas are breached, the pair will not find a solution until the 3.3866 zones are completed.
On the other hand, a break of 5.4387 or a bounce from 3.7190 or 3.3866 may see the pair trade at 6.3051 areas.
The pair has positive targets but we recommend buying in case of a break of 7.0731 targeting 9.30.
Technical Analysis of USD/TRYThe 200 SMA is trading in a bullish direction and is still a very important support area.
Momentum Relative Strength 14 is trading in a bullish direction in formation. This trend is weak due to the closure below the 70 point area, and continues to fall even close to 50 pips.
Main areas:Resistance: 6.3051- 7.03171 - 7.7967
Support: 4.8002 -4.1010- 3.3866
AUD/USD Forecast and Outlook for 2019
AUD/USD opened in 2018 at 0.7856, and continued to rally to 0.8135 and the pair failed to continue to rally as the USD strengthened.Which led to the decline towards the areas of 0.7041 where the pair formed a sub-bottom, the pair rebounded back to areas of 0.7393 and then fell back towards the bottom.
AUD/USD is trading in a major downtrend forming over the weekly interval, supporting the trend of breaking the lower boundary of the bullish flag pattern during late April trading.
The pair has so far reached about 0.5 of the overall science target at 0.6336 and we also note that there are very strong areas at 0.6143 so it is possible to say that the areas of 0.6143 and 0.6336 may see a major floor formation.
In the near future, if bulls can bounce back from the 0.6836 zones or break through the 0.74 areas, it might target 0.7822.
Over time, if the pair is able to maintain 0.6336 areas: 0.6143 might target areas of 0.7910.
Analysis of AUD/USDThe SMA 50 and the SMA 200 are currently neutral, as a result of the lack of confirmation of the negative cross that occurred during November trading as the pair is still trading above the sub-bottom.
RSI 14 is trading in a major bearish direction weakened by a break of 30 pips which supports the possibility of a correction until the 0.7822 zones before the downside is complete.
Main areas:Support: 0.6836- 0.6143- 0.5524
Resistance: 0.7822 - 0.8948 - 0.9496
Gold Forecast and Outlook for 2019
Time frame used - weekly (for medium term investor)Gold has been moving in an upward trend over the medium term since August 2018 so far.
HistoryGold has been moving sideways since 2015, where it failed for the third time to breach the 1367 level.
AnalysisGold faced a series of violent declines during 2018 to reach the important support level 1158, as purchasing power managed to control the movement of gold to bounce back again and close the highest level of 1250 again to turn to a bullish upward trend to reach the level of 1280, Sell around this level.
Looking at the technical indicators that are attached to the chart, we see that the SMA 10 intersects with the SMA 20 for the first time since late 2017, and the ADX is pointing to the intersection of the DI + line with the DI line and the ADX index rising again. Pointing to a new direction looming in the horizon, as well as improving the performance of the Relative Strength Index and its arrival for the first time to the saturation area.
ExpectationWe expect gold to target 1367 times again, and our view remains as long as gold is trading at 1196 high, and this scenario fails to close below 1196. Our expectation coincides with our expectation of the Dollar index falling to 94.24. The higher the gold the lower the dollar index and the higher the dollar index, gold faced selling pressures and declines.
recommendationGold bought around 1243 - 1235 with a stop loss in the case of a close below 1196.
The resistance: 1300 - 1367 - 1431
Support: 1243 - 1196 - 1158
Crude Oil Forecast and Outlook for 2019
Curde Oil (WTI) opened last year's trading at $ 61.66 a barrel and continued to rise until the end of September, where it achieved areas of $ 76.89 and then began to collapse until the areas of $ 42.26.It is worth mentioning that, oil lost about 40% of its value during the last 3 months of the year in what some call the crisis of Gamal Khashoggi.
The previous picture shows that oil, the worst performer in the last three months of the year among several indicators, major global commodities and currencies.
Curde Oil is trading in a major downtrend on the weekly interval. This trend supports the break of the secondary ascending trend line during last November's trading.
The current bearish trend supports breaking the ascending channel that has been trading through from February 2016 until November 2018 as a result of Khashoggi's crisis and the problems of increasing supply.
At the moment we see that the black gold targets areas of $ 31: 36: $ 36.66 in 2019 trading.
In the case of an oil visit to the areas of $ 31.36, we think it might start sideways between $ 31.36 and $ 76.94 during the year unless strong or strong events lead to a break of $ 31.36 or a breach of $ 76.94.
Analysis of Curde Oil Technical Indicators:SMA 50 and SMA 200 are currently neutral as a result of the break of the black gold for these areas and the continuation of the decline.
It is noteworthy that, the positive intersection between the two averages during April failed.
Main areas:Support: 41.77-30.90- 19.91
DOW JONES Forecast and Vision 2019Time frame used - weekly (for medium term investor)
The Dow Jones industrial average is moving in a bearish direction over the medium term.
HistoryThe Dow Jones has seen a sideways movement since late 2017 to late 2018, with the Dow moving from 26950 to a low of 23168 before breaking below this level.
AnalysisThe selling force managed to control the movement of the Dow Jones to break the support level 23168 down to turn the trend from the bearish to the medium term, and given the technical indicators attached we find the intersection of the moving average 10 with the moving average 20 down indicating the confirmation of the bearish trend, The DI line with the DI + line is higher, indicating that the bears are more bullish on the bulls at the moment and the ADX indicator indicates the beginning of a bearish trend looming in the horizon.
ExpectationWe expect the Dow Jones to witness a corrective correction to test the 24000 levels and then to drop back again to target the 19385 level. Our outlook remains as long as the Dow Jones is trading below 26950, and this scenario fails to close at 26950.
RecommendationSell around 23500 - 24000 levels for the target of 19385 with the activation of stop loss in the case of the highest closing level 26950.
Resistance: 23168 - 25352 - 26950
Support: 21604 - 20368 - 19385
DAX30 Forecast and Vision 2019DAX30 index opened last year at 13376 points and continued to rise for 3 weeks to 13599 points, then started to fall to 10276 points, while the closing was at 10572 points.
The DAX30 is trading in a bearish direction in a secondary formation while the long term trend is still bullish as it is without a change on the week interval.
This trend is broken by the sub-ascending trend line with the beginning of the first week of December last year, and this break to eliminate the dreams of the bulls back.
As the break came after the break of the Dax30 in October for a positive bat trading pattern, which means that the index continues to fall to 9239 points.
Currently the German index has not re-tested the broken bullish trend line so we recommend that you be cautious and do not sell until the retest or break the 10276 points.
Buyers are hoping to push the index from 10276 points or move back above the rising trend line, and if this happens, the German index may target 13106 points.
DAX30 Technical Analysis:SMA 50 and SMA 200 are currently forming a resistance zone as the slow moving average was broken during late October trading which supports the harmonic positive bat model.
Please follow closely until the negative intersection between the two previous averages, which is known as the intersection of death Click here to learn how to benefit from it.
Momentum is a bearish indicator so far that supports the harmonic pattern.
Main areas:Support: 9239-6602-3936
Resistance: 11648 - 13601 - 16594
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